The Browns haven’t been good at a lot of things in recent years, but no one can deny they’re experts in drama.
So it’s fitting that on the eve of the NFL Draft, they still had the sports world wondering whether they would pick the best player or the most valuable player at No. 1 overall.
It’s the exact debate coach Hue Jackson acknowledged the Browns would face when I asked him about it all the way back on Jan. 25 after a Senior Bowl practice in Mobile, Ala.
In today’s NFL, I said to Jackson, a good quarterback is more valuable than an elite non-quarterback, for example, a defensive player.
“I don’t disagree,” Jackson said.
Three months later, with the draft set to begin at 8 p.m. Thursday, Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett is widely considered the best player on the board. But in the pass-happy NFL, the most valuable player is likely the best quarterback, and all signs point to Jackson identifying North Carolina’s Mitchell Trubisky as the QB he deems the head of this class.
“No doubt [that’s the debate], and especially in this situation, it is,” Jackson said in January of the best-player-versus-most-valuable-player conundrum. “No question.”
Now, with the dust from deliberating settled, I expect the Browns to select Garrett at No. 1. Nothing should be ruled out, including a trade down, but I would consider anything other than Garrett at No. 1 an upset, and that’s been my stance since the NFL Scouting Combine ended in early March.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported April 11 the Browns were split on whether to take Garrett or Trubisky at No. 1. The popular belief is Jackson and his coaching staff want Garrett at No. 1 and the analytics-driven front office has argued for Trubisky at the top spot.
Either way, head of football operations Sashi Brown said Wednesday a decision had been made.
Brown told NFL Network’s Michael Silver he has known for two weeks whom he wants to pick at No. 1. Of course, Brown, who has final say on draft decisions, wouldn’t disclose his plan.
During a radio interview Wednesday afternoon with 92.3 The Fan, Silver said Brown told him only three or four people know who’ll be the pick at No. 1. Silver, a close friend of Jackson, added he thought not even Jackson knew Brown’s decision but would be told later.
Silver also said Brown told him the Browns “are not desperate to take a quarterback. There’s that perception out there. We don’t feel that way.”
Brown spoke to ESPN, too, telling reporter Josina Anderson, “You want to make sure that you get a player that’s going to be an impact player and that we can count on.”
So the signs point to Garrett. Just like they did last week when Brown said during a pre-draft news conference “we’d be proud to have” Garrett. And just like they did last month at the NFL owners meetings when Jackson said he wants “generational” talent at No. 1 and made it clear none of the QBs in this class “separates himself from the other as much.”
Even if the Browns take the expected route and go with Garrett at No. 1, they could still land Trubisky by using their second pick of the first round, No. 12. That could mean staying put at No. 12, or, more likely, boldly trading up from there if they have reason to believe he won’t last that long.
Dream scenario
Although Brown claimed the Browns aren’t desperate for a QB, their roster suggests otherwise. Brown also said last week the team is “open” to trading up in the first round, and he insisted last month it would “stay aggressive at quarterback.”
Silver reported the Browns have talked to at least five teams in the top eight about possibly trading up from No. 12, with Trubisky as the target. And the Browns will probably talk to all of the those teams to explore every scenario before the draft begins.
The Tennessee Titans, at No. 5, might be the most logical trade partner for the Browns. The two teams traded during last year’s draft, when the Browns moved down from No. 8 to No. 15.
The Titans have made it known they want to move down this year, and they’re one spot ahead of the quarterback-needy New York Jets, who could target Trubisky at No. 6.
It wouldn’t make sense for the Browns to execute a deal with the Titans until Tennessee is on the clock at No. 5 because the San Francisco 49ers (No. 2), Chicago Bears (No. 3) and Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 4) are all capable of taking a quarterback. The Browns would need to make sure Trubisky is still available at No. 5 before pulling the trigger.
Some fans will kill the Browns if they trade up for Trubisky. They’ll point to the Mentor native’s mere 13 starts at North Carolina and crucify the Browns for reaching.
But I would view it as a dream scenario if the Browns were to select the consensus best player at No. 1 and then Jackson’s favorite quarterback. It would give them, on paper, the best player and the most valuable player. Whether the prospects live up to those expectations would remain to be seen, but taking high-quality shots at the game’s two most important positions would be a sound philosophy.
The Oakland Raiders did it in 2014, albeit in different rounds. They drafted the best player, edge rusher Khalil Mack, at No. 5. He transformed their defense. Then they drafted the most valuable player, quarterback Derek Carr, in the second round (No. 36). He transformed the franchise. The Raiders went 3-13 in 2014, 7-9 in 2015 and 12-4 in 2016, earning a playoff berth as a wild-card team.
Another argument for trading up for Jackson’s top QB is that if any team has the ammunition to take a calculated risk and still have a surplus of picks left over, it’s the Browns.
They have 11 picks this year, including two in the first round (Nos. 1 and 12), two in the second (Nos. 33 and 52) and one in the third (No. 65). They have 11 picks next year, including one in the first, three in the second, one in the third and two in the fourth.
There are two trade charts that can be used to project how much it would cost the Browns to move up from No. 12 to No. 5. Several combinations of picks can be used to formulate what would be deemed a fair trade according to the charts, but here are a couple of examples.
Using the “Harvard chart” developed by Browns director of research and strategy Kevin Meers, the No. 5 pick is worth 357.9 points. So a combination the Browns could surrender is No. 12 (283.6 points) and their fourth-round pick at No. 108 (89.5 points), totaling 373.1 points.
Using the older “Jimmy Johnson chart,” the No. 5 pick is worth 1,700 points. So the Browns could give up the No. 12 pick (1,200 points), their second of two second-round picks at No. 52 (380 points) and their third-round pick at No. 65 (265 points), totaling 1,845 points.
The Browns covet picks, but they also need a QB as much as any team in the NFL and won’t win until they find one.
Other draft thoughts
1. If the Browns decide to wait for Trubisky at No. 12 but another team takes him before then, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes would be QBs to watch there. There’s a drop-off after Trubisky and Watson, but Mahomes has the strongest arm in this class and perhaps the most upside despite his wild mechanics, footwork and decision making.
2. The Browns’ other fallback plan at QB could be California’s Davis Webb with the first pick of the second round (No. 33) or even in a trade up into the late stages of the first round. He played for the Browns in the Senior Bowl and has the type of arm strength Jackson covets. Jackson also loves the Cal program and has a lot of connections to it. It would be surprising if the Browns don’t take a QB in the first two rounds.
3. A majority of the Browns’ picks will likely be on defense. They have holes all over the roster, but they’re transitioning to the 4-3 base scheme of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, and the only players added in free agency were on offense. Safety is the biggest need on defense. The Browns pursued Tony Jefferson and Bradley McDougald in free agency, but failed to lure them to Cleveland.
4. Defensive tackle is a big need not many people are talking about. Desmond Bryant has the strength and quickness needed to play three-technique alongside Danny Shelton, but Bryant is coming off a torn pectoral muscle at age 31 without much depth behind him.
5. Speaking about the need for a D-tackle, Senior Bowl Executive Director and former Browns general manager Phil Savage told me, “When you look at the Browns, everybody focuses on the quarterback, and certainly that’s the No. 1 issue, but the second one, and it’s not far behind, is the lack of run defense. This is a team that has really struggled to defend the run. So between Shelton and whoever else they get in there, they’ve got to be able to stop the run to ultimately get Myles Garrett, if that’s who they take at one, into his pass-rush mode. I don’t think you can underestimate the value of a legit defensive tackle for them.”
6. The Browns coached in the Senior Bowl this year, and 75 percent of the teams that have coached in the showcase in the past 10 years have drafted at least two players who participated in it. Most of those picks have been made in rounds 3-5.
Nate Ulrich can be reached at nulrich@thebeaconjournal.com. Read the Browns blog at www.ohio.com/browns. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/NateUlrichABJ and on Facebook www.facebook.com/abj.sports.